Republicans’ threats of a government shutdown are losing ground

As a potential government shutdown looms over the upcoming Presidential election, many citizens are curious to know how likely the shutdown is.

A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass new funding legislation before the previous one expires. The current legislation expires on September 30, 2024. If the government cannot agree to a new funding bill before the deadline, it will shut down on October 1. During a shutdown, all non-essential government functions cease, and millions of government employees face furloughs. Although vital functions will remain, a shutdown disrupts numerous government functions and services, ranging from National Parks to air travel.

Threats of government shutdowns aren’t uncommon at all. It’s fairly routine for the possibility of a government shutdown to arise every time Congress seemingly can’t agree to a new spending bill. Usually, the disagreements are eventually resolved. The most recent government shutdown was over five years ago. However, things are a bit different this time as the threat of a shutdown occurs right before a presidential election, with Republicans threatening the shutdown unless their voting legislation is passed.

How likely is a government shutdown?

Congress’s passage of a new spending bill has been complicated by Republicans using it as an opportunity to pass an anti-immigration voting bill. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has paired the spending bill with the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, also known as the SAVE Act. The bill would force voters to prove their U.S. citizenship to vote. Republicans want to push this bill because of their false belief that immigrants are illegally voting in U.S. elections. The phenomenon is exceedingly rare because noncitizens voting in elections is already illegal, and there are already effective laws in place to protect against voter fraud.

The SAVE Act is an unnecessary law that could encourage discrimination against marginalized groups and create barriers for citizens to vote, as not every American has easy access to documents that prove their citizenship. Most Democrats oppose the bill, making it unlikely to pass the Senate. However, Donald Trump backs the bill and is egging Republicans on to cause the government shutdown unless they get their way.

Despite the conflict, a government shutdown doesn’t appear very likely. House Republicans have proven rational on the topic and are not open to shutting down the government over Johnson’s bill. At least six House Republicans have stated that they will not vote in support of Johnson’s bill. Given that Democrats also oppose the bill, it appears likely the Save Act will fail in the House, which will help evade the government shutdown.

At the same time, there is a slight chance the bill could pass the House, and Johnson could continue refusing to compromise. Another concern is Trump attempting to interfere and influence the GOP due to his desperation to pass the bill. Still, with Johnson’s bill quickly losing Republican support and the Speaker facing pressure to compromise to avoid a government shutdown, it’s likely that a shutdown will be averted.